FEMTC 2022

Evacuation Modelling – Benchmark Analysis Of Input Parameter Sensitivity Of Simulation Software

Quentin Jullien - CSTB

Abstract

Numerical simulation is one of the tools available for emergency evacuation planning. Its main advantage is its capability to represent the impact of dynamic factors related to people movement on outcomes across different incident scenarios. The appropriate use of a simulation tool allows examining multiple scenarios in a cost-effective approach compared to real-life exercises – potentially representing scenarios beyond the reach of exercises given ethical concerns. Tools and methods that can be used for emergency evacuation planning are usually governed by each country’s regulatory structure. A collaboration between seven French institutes and a UK-based consultancy was started in 2018 to evaluate the use of simulation tools for evacuation planning during coming major events in France - especially the 2023 Rugby World Cup and the 2024 Summer Olympic Games. The first stage of this collective work involved collecting data from an evacuation drill that provided a benchmark for comparison of different numerical tools. In order to investigate more deeply the outcomes of this benchmark, the sensitivity of key model input parameters is discussed in this paper (walking speed, occupant diameter and reaction time). The sensitivity analysis was conducted with four numerical tools: PathFinder, FDS+EVAC, building EXODUS and Cromosim. The impact factor of each input parameter was evaluated based on a variance-based sensitivity analysis (Sobol’s sensitivity indices).

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